Author: Owen Miles, VP Solutions Engineering EMEA at Restrata
Author Bio: Owen Miles brings 20+ years of experience in operational resilience and has been instrumental in helping 800+ companies implement and realise the value of resilience solutions.
Blog Series: ‘Miles to Go’ – Exploring the foundations of resilience & continuity
#22 – Scenario Planning for Emerging Risks
Date: 5 February 2026
Scenario Planning for Emerging Risks
Most resilience strategies are built around what’s already happened. Past incidents. Known threats. Familiar disruptions. But the world doesn’t work that way anymore.
I’ve worked with organizations that were well-prepared for the last crisis – but caught off guard by the next one. Not because they weren’t serious about resilience, but because their planning stopped at the edge of the known.
The most resilient organizations I’ve worked with go further. They plan for what hasn’t happened yet. They explore the “what ifs.” They simulate the unlikely. And they build the muscle to adapt when the unexpected arrives.
1. Known Risks Aren’t the Only Risks
It’s easy to plan for what’s already on the risk register – cyberattacks, power outages, supply chain delays. But what about the risks that haven’t made the list yet?
I’ve seen organizations disrupted by sudden regulatory changes, viral misinformation, geopolitical flashpoints, and even internal culture crises. These weren’t on the radar – but they had real impact.
Scenario planning helps surface those blind spots. It asks: What could happen – not just what has?
2. Imagination Is a Resilience Skill
The best scenario planning isn’t about predicting the future – it’s about preparing for possibility. It’s creative. It’s uncomfortable. And it’s essential.
I’ve seen teams run exercises around:
- A key supplier going bankrupt overnight
- A reputational crisis triggered by a social media post
- A natural disaster hitting a region with no backup site
- A leadership vacuum during a critical incident
These aren’t just stories – they’re stress tests. And they reveal gaps that no checklist ever will.
3. Scenarios Build Agility, Not Just Plans
The goal isn’t to create a plan for every possible event. That’s impossible. The goal is to build the thinking, coordination, and confidence to respond when the script doesn’t apply.
Scenario planning strengthens decision-making. It clarifies roles. It tests assumptions. And it helps teams practice the uncomfortable art of acting with incomplete information.
4. Emerging Risks Require Continuous Review
The risk landscape is always shifting. What felt unlikely last year might be urgent today. That’s why scenario planning isn’t a one-off – it’s a rhythm.
The most resilient organizations revisit their scenarios regularly. They scan the horizon. They listen to frontline teams. They ask, “What’s changing – and what does that mean for us?”
Because resilience isn’t just about reacting to what’s happened. It’s about being ready for what’s next.
Call to Action: Run a scenario planning session with your team. Choose one emerging risk – something that hasn’t happened yet – and explore how your organization would respond. Use the insights to strengthen your strategy.
Next Week: We’ll explore the ethics of resilience technology – why transparency, oversight, and trust are just as important as capability when the pressure is on.